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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Forex Predict Indicator Review

This is not a traditional Expert Advisors review but what it potentially offers caught the eye. Forex Predict Indicator costs $27 and offers a 60-day guarantee. Thankfully, their promotional material is light on pomp and their screenshots tell the story.

After you purchase the software you are given a download link for a zip file. The Zip file has a readme file to help you install the code. Copy the necessary files into your Indicators folder and reload MetaTrader. The new indicators will appear in your Custom Indicators folder.

In the Readme file the authors recommend using the predictor on a M15 and M30 timeframe. The indicator can be applied to all pairs.

The authors suggesting trading with a Target Profit of between 15 and 25 pips when the indicator predicts either an up (Long) or down (Short) phase. Beyond this it offers no more advice, such as a stop to use. In their examples they don't use a stop at all. 

The Readme file offers additional links for Expert Advisors and Indicators should you be interested in more.

After you apply the indicator to a chart you need to ensure the MetaTrader Shiftbutton is selected as you need to see the prediction on the chart. If you use the default chart view the predictor will lie flush against the price axis, obscuring it. 

The indicator looks neat and there is no ambiguity as to what it's trying to predict.This is the EURUSD M30 chart for September 27th.

I dropped the timeframe to M1 and tracked its behaviour in this short video. On the addition of each new time bar the prediction updates. You can see how the prediction evolved on each new bar, although placing stops in line with the prediction becomes difficult and the chance for whipsaw appears quite high (but again, this is a M1 prediction which suffers more noise than their suggested M15 or M30 timeframe).

However, the indicator is not without (some) merit. I ran the predictor across all timeframes for EURUSD and got a more consistent level of prediction.

So while the M1 predictor was favouring the upside, the M5, M15, M30 and H1 were indicating downward prices. But there are additional quirks. If you look at the early prediction for M30 the suggestion is for higher prices, but the M5 and M15 both clearly direct to lower prices for this period. Likewise, H4 suggests higher prices in the near term but the H1 is pointing lower. The daily prediction is higher but the weekly timeframe is suggesting more range bound trading while the monthly timeframe is pointing sharply lower.

When using this tool, it may be prudent to frame any trade decision based on the next longer timeframe. For example, if trading in M1 then consider the trend direction of M5 and/or M15; maybe use a higher prediction on the M1 to enter counter trades based on the direction of M5/M15; in the above example you would look to short upward predictions in M1 in line with the downward projections derived from the M5 and M15 timeframe.

If using the projection as intended it may be necessary to use an ATR or some other volatility-based stop to protect against missed projections. Unfortunately, the authors don't use stops so testing win % isn't possible without delving into this further (a later article perhaps).

However, if we are to give the Predictor credence then based on the monthly (MN) prediction for EURUSD, the currency should be trading down around $1.17 by June 2012. If this proves to be true then you can say you saw it here first, thanks to Forex Predict Indicator. 

Going back to our earlier M1 chart, one can see how the more dominant long-term trend overwhelmed the shorter M1 prediction. If you haven't watched the video (there is no sound), watch it - then compare it to the chart below.

If you would like to give it a spin, then you can buy it here for $27.

Happy Predicting!

Update:  The M30 chart prediction didn't turn out to bad; chart below:

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